According to NOAA expert assessment, the average global temperature of the planet in 2011 was not among the ten warmest. January 2012 also showed no loyalty to global warming and became only 19th in the ranked series.
The planet's average global temperature in January 2012 was only the 19th hottest since 1880, according to the US National Weather Service. – Land temperature ranked 26th in the reporting period. The ocean temperature has become the 17th warmest and the lowest since 2008,” American meteorologists specify.
These facts do not say anything yet, but, of course, make you think. Perhaps, indeed, not everything is so smooth in the theory of global warming, promoted by the International Panel on Climate Change?
Recall that on October 12, 2007, Alber Gore was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for his work in protecting the environment and research on climate change. In addition, his film An Inconvenient Truth about human impact on climate won 2 Oscars.
However, even then the opinions of experts were ambiguous. Thus, hurricane specialist William Gray described the theory for which Gore received the prize as ridiculous. “We are brainwashing our children. We feed them movies (An Inconvenient Truth). It's ridiculous."
With his speeches on climate protection, Gore traveled to several dozen cities around the world. According to information leaked to the press, his fee for an hour lecture on the topic of environmental conservation reaches marks of up to $ 100,000.
In 2009, a number of members of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, of which Gore is a member, found themselves at the center of a controversy after revelations of misrepresentation and falsification of data that contradicted the theory of global warming.
The problem of global warming, tormenting in last years minds of scientists and politicians, has become perhaps the most popular among environmental problems. Terrible predictions about the irreversibility of the climate change process and its horrific consequences are forcing the entire world community not only to discuss this topic at any opportunity, but also to allocate huge funds to fight the number one enemy of humanity. But you can't fool the Russians! Russian hackers did not take the Western luminaries of science at their word, and even hacked into the servers of the University of East Anglia, which deals with climate change issues. It turned out that the horror story of the 21st century is more like a myth.
Hackers of all Russia
Having revealed the terrible secret of British scientists, hackers, as honest people, decided to tell the whole world about it in secret - three thousand documents and electronic correspondence were posted on the Internet for everyone to see.
According to British scientists' correspondence with NASA and US academics, for at least the last few years, the much-hyped global warming issue has been a sham.
Particularly interesting is also a letter that has become public knowledge of Professor Phil Jones (Phil Jones), who heads the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia. It is dated 1999. The message states that the professor "just did one of Mike's tricks, increasing the temperature for every period in the last 20 years (since 1981) to hide the fact that it's going down."
In addition, in correspondence, climate researchers discussed what kind of work they should publish in scientific journals in order to keep the myth of climate change afloat. At the same time, they put pressure on scientific publications so that they do not publish studies of other scientists with the results of which they disagree. The British University has already confirmed the leak. And the link to the server where the scientists' letters were posted is blocked.
The trophy obtained by Russian hackers on the battlefield for truthful information most likely did not come as a shock to the public. The fact that global warming is more of a global hoax has been talked about for a long time.
Deception on a planetary scale
What is this most global warming and what does it come from? No one can answer this question with 100% certainty. But, noticing something wrong in the behavior of the earth's temperatures, scientists and UN experts conferred, and even accepted by consensus that the process of increasing the average annual temperature of the Earth's atmosphere and the World Ocean was the work of man. The same version was supported by the academies of sciences of the G8 countries.
According to the theory of Western scientific luminaries, the average temperature on the planet since the beginning of the industrial revolution has risen by 0.7 degrees Celsius and continues to grow steadily. All these anomalous phenomena are caused primarily by emissions of gases that cause the greenhouse effect, such as carbon dioxide and methane. If humanity continues in the same spirit, we will inevitably be overtaken by destructive natural disasters, floods, droughts, hurricanes. All this is reminiscent of the scenarios of Hollywood disaster films that have become especially popular recently. But for some reason it seems that all these scientific experiments and research are the props of a great spectacle that is played out before humanity.
More than nine years ago, back in 2000, Russian geographer Professor Andrey Kapitsa declared that global warming does not exist. On the contrary, for more than 30 years there has been a slow cooling.
Another myth the professor called the influence of man and his activities on climate change. The climate on our planet is changing regardless of our desire or unwillingness. Moreover, carbon dioxide emissions, which are considered the main cause of the "greenhouse effect", are just a consequence of natural natural warming, which has now been replaced by an equally natural cycle of "cooling" of the planet.
It happens approximately according to the following scheme: the climate changes cyclically from ice ages to warming, but at the same time, when the World Ocean, the main repository of carbon dioxide, warms up even by half a degree, a powerful release of this substance into the atmosphere occurs. When the temperature changes towards minus, the concentration of carbon dioxide begins to decrease. In addition, its content is also affected by the activity of volcanoes and forest fires. But not industrial human activity.
All this evidence of the falsity of the theory of global warming was obtained by scientists with the help of simple, but very effective, according to them, experiments. The researchers started drilling wells in the age-old ice of Antarctica and Greenland. The depth of these wells goes several millennia deep, or rather, many hundreds of meters. Columns of ice deposits extracted from wells are being investigated - a core in which there is air from those eras when snow fell. In this way, scientists obtain a kind of sample of the atmosphere of centuries past. The study of these samples allows you to find out all the characteristics of the weather conditions of past years.
It is noteworthy that at the Madrid conference held in 1995, where the UN officially recognized the responsibility of mankind for global warming, the results of research and scientific works of opponents of this theory did not appear. Moreover, a number of documents confirming the inconsistency of this hypothesis, which were provided by the UN, have disappeared without a trace.
Rescue in the greenhouse
Not only does the theory of the greenhouse effect have more and more opponents every year, causing all sorts of inconvenience to the classics of the apocalyptic scenario, now some scientists are ready to fully recognize this theory, but with a small reservation. It turns out that warming is a friend of a person.
Some American and British researchers, independently of each other, came to the conclusion that soon, after some couple of tens of thousands of years, the kingdom of ice will come to Earth. Scientists made this conclusion on the basis of the same studies of secular ice.
University of Edinburgh professor Thomas Crowley argues that about a million years ago, the cycles of earth temperature fluctuations "suddenly became much longer, up to 100 thousand years, and climate fluctuations became stronger and sharper. And this amplitude continues to grow: it is not for nothing that the two most severe ice ages in history Earth falls on the last 200 thousand years.Our calculations show that the period of warm climate on Earth is coming to an end."
At the same time, the scientist notes that it is the greenhouse effect that saves mankind from cold death. However, according to the professor, no matter how hard humanity tries to prolong global warming on its own, the ice age "will come pretty soon," and we have "ten to a hundred thousand years in reserve."
Kyoto adventure
To combat global warming in 1997 was developed and adopted Kyoto Protocol. The agreement obliges the states that have ratified it, and there are 181 of them in total, to reduce or at least not increase greenhouse gas emissions in 2008-2012 compared to 1990. It is worth noting that the obligations, in accordance with the protocol, the countries assumed are not the same. Thus, by 2012 the European Union must reduce emissions by eight percent, Japan and Canada by six percent, Russia and Ukraine - to maintain the average annual emissions of 1990. At the same time, developing countries, including China and India, did not undertake any obligations.
The only exception to the list of carbon dioxide fighters who ratified the Kyoto Protocol was the United States. It's worth thinking about here. Now fabulous money is being allocated to host numerous conferences, summits, meetings on climate change, as well as to finance the most sophisticated research and experiments. At the same time, no one can give guarantees that all efforts will not be in vain, as well as 100 percent prove that warming is due to greenhouse emissions.
In this case, a completely logical question is brewing - who needs all this? In recent years, in the rebellious environment of the post-Soviet space, in particular in Russia, suggestions have begun to arise that it is the idea of the Western European powers to force the states of the world to allocate huge funds for emission control.
According to this assumption, as a result of warming and, accordingly, the rise in the level of the World Ocean, the industrial centers of Europe will be flooded. It is known that the warm climate, and at the same time the usual economic and social structure, Europe owes to the Gulf Stream. It is predicted that global warming will not leave the existing ocean currents unchanged. Such surprises of nature can be a serious blow to Western European civilization.
Another reason, besides global apocalyptic experiences, forcing Europeans to stand up for the universal implementation of the Kyoto Protocol, is an acute and constant shortage of energy resources. This is pushing the European industry to invent expensive energy-saving technologies. Europe will be happy if the whole world is obliged to use such inventions. And given that developing countries are simply unable to create their own technologies, Europeans will also be able to earn money.
What is important, following all the requirements of the Kyoto Protocol, the states will be forced to spend huge amounts of money on the modernization of the environmental component of their industry. This cannot but affect the slowdown in economic growth.
Here it is worth stopping for a minute and imagine all the "drama" of the situation with global warming. The rise in the level of the World Ocean by tens of meters - the most threatening of the consequences of warming - will occur in the most pessimistic scenario not earlier than in 1000 (!) years. In the next 100 years, the water level is predicted to rise by no more than 88 centimeters. So there is no talk of a grand flood.
So far, the expected annual damage to the global economy due to global warming by 2050 is estimated at about $300 billion. The costs of fulfilling the conditions of the Kyoto Protocol are estimated at about twice as much. Given that the positive effect of all these efforts is likely to not exceed 1.3 percent.
It can be assumed that the world political elite, coupled with the best minds of mankind, have created the greatest ecological whip of our time, which can be used to drive the economies of developing countries. At the same time, the strongest power in the world, the United States, is in no hurry to join the spending of money on warming that has swept the whole world. Why? Apparently, they understand the absurdity of "treatment" natural phenomenon. And not only. The whole trick is that while the world is looking in one direction (discussing warming and spending money on it), something very important, but hidden from the world, is definitely happening in the other. But what? Perhaps the answers will again have to wait from the hackers.
This is an increase in the average temperature on Earth, which has been recorded since the end of the 19th century. Over land and ocean since the beginning of the 20th century, it has risen by an average of 0.8 degrees.
Scientists believe that by the end of the 21st century, the temperature may rise by an average of 2 degrees (a negative forecast is 4 degrees).
All climate changes that we feel ourselves are the consequences of global warming. This is what has happened on Earth over the past century.
Additional entry into the atmosphere of greenhouse gases: methane, carbon dioxide, water vapor, ozone. They absorb long wavelengths of infrared radiation without releasing them into space. Because of this, a greenhouse effect forms on Earth.
Global warming has provoked the rapid development of industry. The more emissions from enterprises, the more actively deforestation takes place (and they absorb carbon dioxide), the more greenhouse gases accumulate. And the more the Earth warms up.
Scientists predict that further global warming can intensify processes that are detrimental to people, provoke droughts, floods, and the lightning spread of dangerous diseases.
According to one version, warming in the Arctic is to blame for the formation of destructive hurricanes. It created an atmospheric "blockade" - it slowed down the circulation of jet streams in the atmosphere. Because of this, powerful "slow-moving" storms were formed, which absorbed a huge amount of moisture. But there is not enough evidence for this theory yet.
Many climatologists rely on the Clausius-Clapeyron equation, according to which an atmosphere with a higher temperature contains more moisture, and therefore conditions arise for the formation of more powerful storms. The water temperature in the ocean where Harvey formed is about 1 degree above average.
Approximately according to the same pattern, hurricane Irma was formed. The process began in warm waters off the coast of West Africa. For 30 hours, the elements intensified to the third category (and then to the highest, fifth). Meteorologists have recorded such a rate of formation for the first time in two decades.
Scientists believe that such hurricanes may become the norm. True, climatologists do not yet predict an instant global cooling, as in the film.
Extreme weather events have already taken first place in the top five global risks for 2017, announced at the World Economic Forum. 90% of the biggest economic losses in the world today are due to floods, hurricanes, floods, heavy rains, hail, droughts.
It does not interfere. Scientists have developed a model that explains this.
Global warming has led to an increase in temperature in the Arctic Ocean. The ice began to actively melt, the circulation of air flows changed, and with them the seasonal patterns of atmospheric pressure distribution changed.
Previously, the weather in Europe was made by the Arctic Oscillation with the seasonal Azores High (area high pressure) and the Icelandic Low. Between these two areas, a west wind was formed, which brought warm air from the Atlantic.
But due to rising temperatures, the pressure difference between the Azores High and the Icelandic Low has narrowed. Air masses increasingly began to move not from west to east, but along the meridians. Arctic air can penetrate deep south and bring cold.
If there is a desire, . Who is warned is armed. This summer, hurricanes were recorded in many Russian cities, the likes of which have not been seen in strength for the past 100 years.
According to Roshydromet, in 1990-2000, 150-200 dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena were recorded in our country, which caused damage. Today, their number exceeds 400, and the consequences are becoming more devastating.
Global warming is manifested not only in climate change. For several years, scientists from the A. A. Trofimuk Institute of Petroleum Geology and Geophysics have been warning about the danger for cities and towns in northern Russia.
Huge funnels have formed here, from which explosive methane can be released.
Previously, these funnels were heaving mounds: an underground "storage" of ice. But due to global warming, they have melted. The voids were filled with gas hydrates, the release of which is similar to an explosion.
A further increase in temperature can exacerbate the process. It poses a particular danger to Yamal and the cities located close to it: Nadym, Salekhard, Novy Urengoy.
Yes, if completely rebuilt energy system. Today, about 87% of the world's energy comes from fossil fuels (oil, coal, gas).
To reduce the amount of emissions, it is necessary to use low-carbon energy sources: wind, sun, geothermal processes (occurring in the bowels of the earth).
Another way is to develop carbon capture, where carbon dioxide is extracted from emissions from power plants, refineries and other industries and pumped underground.
There are a number of reasons for this: political (defending the interests of certain companies), technological (alternative energy is considered too expensive) and others.
The most active "producers" of greenhouse gases are China, USA, EU countries, India, Russia.
If emissions can still be significantly reduced, there is a chance to stop global warming at around 1 degree.
But if there are no changes, the average temperature may rise by 4 degrees or more. And in this case, the consequences will be irreversible and disastrous for humanity.
A lot is being said and written about global warming. Almost every day new hypotheses appear, old ones are refuted. We are constantly frightened by what awaits us in the future (I well remember the comment of one of the readers of the www.priroda.su magazine “We have been frightened for so long and terribly that it is no longer scary”). Many statements and articles frankly contradict each other, misleading us. Global warming has already become a “global confusion” for many, and some have completely lost all interest in the problem of climate change. Let's try to systematize the available information by creating a kind of mini encyclopedia of global warming.
1. What is global warming?
5. Man and the greenhouse effect
1. Global warming is the process of a gradual increase in the average annual temperature of the surface layer of the Earth's atmosphere and the World Ocean, due to various reasons (an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere, changes in solar or volcanic activity, etc.). Very often, the phrase "greenhouse effect" is used as a synonym for global warming, but there is a slight difference between these concepts. The greenhouse effect is an increase in the average annual temperature of the surface layer of the Earth's atmosphere and the World Ocean due to an increase in the concentrations of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, water vapor, etc.) in the Earth's atmosphere. These gases play the role of a film or glass of a greenhouse (greenhouse), they freely pass the sun's rays to the Earth's surface and retain heat leaving the planet's atmosphere. We will discuss this process in more detail below.
For the first time, global warming and the greenhouse effect were discussed in the 60s of the XX century, and at the UN level the problem of global climate change was first voiced in 1980. Since then, many scientists have been racking their brains over this problem, often mutually refuting each other's theories and assumptions.
2. Ways to obtain information on climate change
Existing technologies make it possible to reliably judge the climate changes that are taking place. Scientists use the following “tools” to substantiate their theories of climate change:
Historical annals and chronicles;
Meteorological observations;
Satellite measurements of ice area, vegetation, climatic zones and atmospheric processes;
Analysis of paleontological (remains of ancient animals and plants) and archaeological data;
Analysis of sedimentary oceanic rocks and river sediments;
Analysis of ancient ice in the Arctic and Antarctica (ratio of O16 and O18 isotopes);
Measuring the rate of melting of glaciers and permafrost, the intensity of iceberg formation;
Observation of the sea currents of the Earth;
Observation of the chemical composition of the atmosphere and ocean;
Observation of changes in the areas (habitats) of living organisms;
Analysis of the annual rings of trees and the chemical composition of tissues of plant organisms.
3. Facts about global warming
Paleontological evidence suggests that Earth's climate has not been constant. Warm periods were replaced by cold glacial ones. During warm periods, the average annual temperature of the Arctic latitudes rose to 7-13°C, and the temperature of the coldest month of January was 4-6 degrees, i.e. climatic conditions in our Arctic differed little from the climate of modern Crimea. The warm periods were sooner or later replaced by cooling periods, during which the ice reached modern tropical latitudes.
Man has also witnessed a number of climatic changes. At the beginning of the second millennium (11-13 centuries), historical chronicles indicate that big square Greenland was not covered with ice (which is why the Norwegian navigators dubbed it the "green land"). Then the climate of the Earth became harsher, and Greenland was almost completely covered with ice. In the 15th-17th centuries, severe winters reached their peak. The severity of the winters of that time is evidenced by many historical chronicles, as well as works of art. Thus, the well-known painting by the Dutch artist Jan Van Goyen “Skaters” (1641) depicts mass skating along the canals of Amsterdam; at present, the canals of Holland have not been frozen for a long time. In medieval winters, even the River Thames in England froze over. In the 18th century, a slight warming was noted, which reached its maximum in 1770. The 19th century was again marked by another cold snap, which continued until 1900, and from the beginning of the 20th century, a rather rapid warming had already begun. Already by 1940, the amount of ice in the Greenland Sea had halved, in the Barents Sea by almost a third, and in the Soviet sector of the Arctic, the total ice area had decreased by almost half (1 million km2). During this period of time, even ordinary ships (not icebreakers) calmly sailed along the northern sea route from the western to eastern outskirts of the country. It was then that a significant increase in the temperature of the Arctic seas was recorded, a significant retreat of glaciers in the Alps and the Caucasus was noted. The total ice area of the Caucasus has decreased by 10%, and the thickness of the ice has decreased in places by as much as 100 meters. The temperature increase in Greenland was 5°C, while in Svalbard it was 9°C.
In 1940, the warming was replaced by a short-term cooling, which was soon replaced by another warming, and since 1979 it began fast growth the temperature of the surface layer of the Earth's atmosphere, which caused another acceleration of the melting of ice in the Arctic and Antarctic and an increase in winter temperatures in temperate latitudes. So, over the past 50 years, the thickness of the Arctic ice has decreased by 40%, and the inhabitants of a number of Siberian cities have begun to note for themselves that severe frosts have long been a thing of the past. The average winter temperature in Siberia has risen by almost ten degrees over the past fifty years. In some regions of Russia, the frost-free period has increased by two to three weeks. The habitat of many living organisms has shifted north following the growing average winter temperatures, we will talk about these and other consequences of global warming below. Old photographs of glaciers testify especially clearly to global climate change (all photos were taken in the same month).
Photographs of the melting Pasterze glacier in Austria in 1875 (left) and 2004 (right). Photographer Gary Braasch
Photographs of the Agassiz Glacier in Glacier National Park (Canada) in 1913 and 2005. Photographer W.C. Alden
Photographs of the Grinnell Glacier in Glacier National Park (Canada) in 1938 and 2005. Photographer: Mt. gould.
The same Grinnell Glacier from a different angle, photographs from 1940 and 2004. Photographer: K. Holzer.
In general, over the past hundred years, the average temperature of the surface layer of the atmosphere has increased by 0.3-0.8 ° C, the area of snow cover in the northern hemisphere has decreased by 8%, and the level of the World Ocean has risen by an average of 10-20 centimeters. These facts are of some concern. Will global warming stop or further growth the average annual temperature on Earth will continue, the answer to this question will appear only when the causes of ongoing climate change are precisely established.
4. Causes of global warming
Hypothesis 1- The cause of global warming is a change in solar activity
All ongoing climatic processes on the planet depend on the activity of our luminary - the Sun. Therefore, even the smallest changes in the activity of the Sun will certainly affect the weather and climate of the Earth. There are 11-year, 22-year, and 80-90-year (Gleisberg) cycles of solar activity.
It is likely that the observed global warming is due to the next increase in solar activity, which may decline again in the future.
Hypothesis 2 - The cause of global warming is a change in the angle of the Earth's axis of rotation and its orbit
The Yugoslav astronomer Milanković suggested that cyclical climate changes are largely associated with a change in the orbit of the Earth's rotation around the Sun, as well as a change in the angle of inclination of the Earth's axis of rotation relative to the Sun. Such orbital changes in the position and movement of the planet cause a change in the radiation balance of the Earth, and hence its climate. Milankovitch, guided by his theory, quite accurately calculated the times and length of ice ages in the past of our planet. Climatic changes caused by a change in the Earth's orbit usually occur over tens or even hundreds of thousands of years. The relatively rapid climate change observed at the present time, apparently, occurs as a result of the action of some other factors.
Hypothesis 3 - The culprit of global climate change is the ocean
The world ocean is a huge inertial accumulator solar energy. It largely determines the direction and speed of movement of warm oceanic and air masses on Earth, which greatly affect the climate of the planet. At present, the nature of heat circulation in the water column of the ocean has been little studied. So it is known that the average temperature of the ocean waters is 3.5 ° C, and the land surface is 15 ° C, so the intensity of heat exchange between the ocean and the surface layer of the atmosphere can lead to significant climatic changes. In addition, a large amount of CO2 is dissolved in the waters of the ocean (about 140 trillion tons, which is 60 times more than in the atmosphere) and a number of other greenhouse gases, as a result of certain natural processes these gases can enter the atmosphere, significantly affecting the Earth's climate.
Hypothesis 4 - Volcanic activity
Volcanic activity is a source of sulfuric acid aerosols and a large amount of carbon dioxide entering the Earth's atmosphere, which can also significantly affect the Earth's climate. Large eruptions are initially accompanied by cooling due to the entry of sulfuric acid aerosols and soot particles into the Earth's atmosphere. Subsequently, the CO2 released during the eruption causes an increase in the average annual temperature on Earth. The subsequent long-term decrease in volcanic activity contributes to an increase in the transparency of the atmosphere, and hence to an increase in temperature on the planet.
Hypothesis 5 - Unknown interactions between the Sun and the planets of the solar system
In the phrase "Solar system" the word "system" is not in vain mentioned, and in any system, as you know, there are connections between its components. Therefore, it is possible that the relative position of the planets and the Sun can affect the distribution and strength of gravitational fields, solar energy, and other types of energy. All connections and interactions between the Sun, planets and the Earth have not yet been studied and it is possible that they have a significant impact on the processes occurring in the Earth's atmosphere and hydrosphere.
Hypothesis 6 - Climate change can occur on its own without any external influences and human activities
Planet Earth is such a large and complex system with a huge number of structural elements that its global climatic characteristics can change significantly without any changes in solar activity and the chemical composition of the atmosphere. Various mathematical models show that over the course of a century, fluctuations in the temperature of the surface air layer (fluctuations) can reach 0.4°C. As a comparison, we can cite the body temperature of a healthy person, which varies during the day and even hours.
Hypothesis 7 - Man is to blame
The most popular hypothesis to date. The high rate of climate change that has taken place in recent decades can indeed be explained by the ever-increasing intensification of anthropogenic activity, which has a significant impact on chemical composition atmosphere of our planet in the direction of increasing the content of greenhouse gases in it. Indeed, an increase in the average air temperature of the lower layers of the Earth's atmosphere by 0.8 ° C over the past 100 years is too high a rate for natural processes; earlier in the history of the Earth, such changes occurred over thousands of years. The last decades have added even more weight to this argument, since changes in the average air temperature have occurred at an even greater pace - 0.3-0.4 ° C over the past 15 years!
It is likely that the current global warming is the result of many factors. You can find the rest of the hypotheses of ongoing global warming here.
5.Man and the Greenhouse Effect
Adherents of the latter hypothesis assign a key role in global warming to man, who radically changes the composition of the atmosphere, contributing to the growth of the greenhouse effect of the Earth's atmosphere.
The greenhouse effect in the atmosphere of our planet is caused by the fact that the flow of energy in the infrared range of the spectrum, rising from the Earth's surface, is absorbed by atmospheric gas molecules, and radiated back in different directions, as a result, half of the energy absorbed by greenhouse gas molecules returns back to the Earth's surface, causing it warming up. It should be noted that the greenhouse effect is a natural atmospheric phenomenon. If there were no greenhouse effect on Earth at all, then the average temperature on our planet would be about -21 ° C, and so, thanks to greenhouse gases, it is + 14 ° C. Therefore, purely theoretically, human activity, associated with the release of greenhouse gases into the Earth's atmosphere, should lead to further heating of the planet.
Let's take a closer look at greenhouse gases that can potentially cause global warming. The number one greenhouse gas is water vapor, contributing 20.6°C to the existing atmospheric greenhouse effect. In second place is CO2, its contribution is about 7.2°C. The increase in the content of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere is now of the greatest concern, since the growing active use of hydrocarbons by mankind will continue in the near future. Over the past two and a half centuries (since the beginning of the industrial era), the content of CO2 in the atmosphere has already increased by about 30%.
In third place on our "greenhouse rating" is ozone, its contribution to total global warming is 2.4 °C. Unlike other greenhouse gases, human activity, on the contrary, causes a decrease in the ozone content in the Earth's atmosphere. Next comes nitrous oxide, its contribution to the greenhouse effect is estimated at 1.4°C. The content of nitrous oxide in the planet's atmosphere tends to increase; over the past two and a half centuries, the concentration of this greenhouse gas in the atmosphere has increased by 17%. A large amount of nitrous oxide enters the Earth's atmosphere as a result of burning various wastes. Methane completes the list of major greenhouse gases; its contribution to the total greenhouse effect is 0.8°C. The content of methane in the atmosphere is growing very rapidly, over two and a half centuries, this growth amounted to 150%. The main sources of methane in the Earth's atmosphere are decaying waste, large cattle, as well as the decay of natural compounds containing methane in their composition. Of particular concern is the fact that the ability to absorb infrared radiation per unit mass of methane is 21 times higher than that of carbon dioxide.
The greatest role in the global warming taking place is assigned to water vapor and carbon dioxide. They account for more than 95% of the total greenhouse effect. It is thanks to these two gaseous substances that the Earth's atmosphere is heated by 33 ° C. Anthropogenic activity has the greatest impact on the increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere, and the content of water vapor in the atmosphere grows following the temperature on the planet, due to an increase in evaporation. The total technogenic emission of CO2 into the Earth's atmosphere is 1.8 billion tons/year, total amount carbon dioxide, which binds the Earth's vegetation as a result of photosynthesis, is 43 billion tons / year, but almost all of this amount of carbon as a result of plant respiration, fires, decomposition processes again finds itself in the planet's atmosphere and only 45 million tons / year of carbon is deposited in plant tissues, swamps of land and the depths of the ocean. These figures show that human activity has the potential to be a tangible force influencing the Earth's climate.
6. Factors accelerating and slowing down global warming
Planet Earth is such a complex system that there are many factors that directly or indirectly affect the climate of the planet, accelerating or slowing down global warming.
Factors accelerating global warming:
Emissions of CO2, methane, nitrous oxide as a result of man-made activities;
Decomposition, due to temperature increase, of geochemical sources of carbonates with the release of CO2. The earth's crust contains 50,000 times more carbon dioxide in a bound state than in the atmosphere;
An increase in the content of water vapor in the Earth's atmosphere, due to an increase in temperature, and hence the evaporation of ocean water;
Release of CO2 by the World Ocean due to its heating (the solubility of gases decreases with increasing water temperature). For each degree increase in water temperature, the solubility of CO2 in it drops by 3%. The oceans contain 60 times more CO2 than the Earth's atmosphere (140 trillion tons);
Decrease in the Earth's albedo (the reflectivity of the planet's surface) due to the melting of glaciers, changes in climatic zones and vegetation. The sea surface reflects much less sunlight than the polar glaciers and snows of the planet, the mountains devoid of glaciers also have a lower albedo, the woody vegetation moving north has a lower albedo than the tundra plants. Over the past five years, the Earth's albedo has already decreased by 2.5%;
Emission of methane during thawing of permafrost;
Decomposition of methane hydrates - crystalline icy compounds of water and methane contained in the subpolar regions of the Earth.
Factors slowing down global warming:
Global warming causes ocean currents to slow down, slowing of the warm Gulf Stream will cause a decrease in temperature in the Arctic;
With an increase in temperature on Earth, evaporation increases, and hence cloudiness, which is a certain kind of barrier to the path of sunlight. Cloud area increases by approximately 0.4% for every degree of warming;
With increasing evaporation, the amount of precipitation increases, which contributes to the waterlogging of lands, and swamps are known to be one of the main depots of CO2;
An increase in temperature will contribute to the expansion of the area of warm seas, and hence the expansion of the range of mollusks and coral reefs, these organisms are actively involved in the deposition of CO2, which goes to the construction of shells;
An increase in the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere stimulates the growth and development of plants, which are active acceptors (consumers) of this greenhouse gas.
7. Possible scenarios for global climate change
Global climate change is very complex, so modern science cannot give an unambiguous answer about what awaits us in the near future. There are many scenarios for the development of the situation.
Scenario 1 - global warming will occur gradually
The Earth is a very large and complex system, consisting of a large number of interconnected structural components. The planet has a mobile atmosphere, the movement of air masses of which distributes thermal energy across the latitudes of the planet, the Earth has a huge accumulator of heat and gases - the World Ocean (the ocean accumulates 1000 times more heat than the atmosphere) Changes in such a complex system cannot occur quickly. Centuries and millennia will pass before any tangible climate change can be judged.
Scenario 2 - global warming will occur relatively quickly
The most "popular" scenario at present. According to various estimates, over the past hundred years, the average temperature on our planet has increased by 0.5-1 ° C, the concentration of CO2 has increased by 20-24%, and methane by 100%. In the future, these processes will continue and by the end of the 21st century, the average temperature of the Earth's surface may increase from 1.1 to 6.4°C compared to 1990 (according to IPCC forecasts, from 1.4 to 5.8°C). Further melting of the Arctic and Antarctic ice can accelerate the processes of global warming due to changes in the planet's albedo. According to some scientists, only the ice caps of the planet, due to the reflection of solar radiation, cool our Earth by 2 ° C, and the ice covering the surface of the ocean significantly slows down the processes of heat transfer between the relatively warm ocean waters and the colder surface layer of the atmosphere. In addition, there is practically no main greenhouse gas above the ice caps - water vapor, since it is frozen out.
Global warming will be accompanied by rising sea levels. From 1995 to 2005, the level of the World Ocean has already risen by 4 cm, instead of the predicted 2 cm. If the level of the World Ocean continues to rise at the same rate, then by the end of the 21st century, the total rise in its level will be 30-50 cm, which will cause partial flooding of many coastal areas, especially the densely populated coast of Asia. It should be remembered that about 100 million people on Earth live at an altitude of less than 88 centimeters above sea level.
In addition to rising sea levels, global warming affects the strength of the winds and the distribution of precipitation on the planet. As a result, the frequency and scale of various natural disasters (storms, hurricanes, droughts, floods) will increase on the planet.
Currently, 2% of all land suffers from drought, according to some scientists, by 2050, up to 10% of all continents will be covered by drought. In addition, the seasonal distribution of precipitation will change.
Rainfall and storm frequency will increase in northern Europe and the western United States, and hurricanes will rage twice as often as in the 20th century. The climate of Central Europe will become changeable, in the heart of Europe winters will become warmer and summers rainier. Eastern and Southern Europe, including the Mediterranean, will face drought and heat.
Scenario 3 - Global warming in some parts of the Earth will be replaced by a short-term cooling
It is known that one of the factors in the occurrence of ocean currents is the temperature gradient (difference) between arctic and tropical waters. The melting of polar ice contributes to an increase in the temperature of the Arctic waters, and therefore causes a decrease in the temperature difference between tropical and Arctic waters, which will inevitably lead to a slowdown in the future in the future.
One of the most famous warm currents is the Gulf Stream, thanks to which in many countries of Northern Europe the average annual temperature is 10 degrees higher than in other similar climatic zones of the Earth. It is clear that the shutdown of this ocean heat conveyor will greatly affect the Earth's climate. Already, the current of the Gulf Stream has become weaker by 30% compared to 1957. Mathematical modeling has shown that in order to completely stop the Gulf Stream, it will be enough to increase the temperature by 2-2.5 degrees. At present, the temperature of the North Atlantic has already warmed up by 0.2 degrees compared to the 70s. If the Gulf Stream stops, the average annual temperature in Europe will decrease by 1 degree by 2010, and after 2010 the further increase in the average annual temperature will continue. Other mathematical models "promise" a more severe cooling in Europe.
According to these mathematical calculations, the complete stop of the Gulf Stream will occur in 20 years, as a result of which the climate of Northern Europe, Ireland, Iceland and the UK may become colder by 4-6 degrees than the present, rains will intensify and storms will become more frequent. Cooling will also affect the Netherlands, Belgium, Scandinavia and the north of the European part of Russia. After 2020-2030, warming in Europe will resume according to scenario No. 2.
Scenario 4 - Global warming will be replaced by global cooling
Stopping the Gulf Stream and other oceanic will cause global cooling on Earth and the onset of the next ice age.
Scenario 5 - Greenhouse catastrophe
A greenhouse catastrophe is the most “unpleasant” scenario for the development of global warming processes. The author of the theory is our scientist Karnaukhov, its essence is as follows. An increase in the average annual temperature on Earth, due to an increase in the content of anthropogenic CO2 in the Earth's atmosphere, will cause the transition of CO2 dissolved in the ocean into the atmosphere, and will also provoke the decomposition of sedimentary carbonate rocks with additional release of carbon dioxide, which, in turn, will raise the temperature on Earth even higher, which will entail further decomposition of carbonates lying in the deeper layers of the earth's crust (the ocean contains 60 times more carbon dioxide than the atmosphere, and almost 50,000 times more in the earth's crust). Glaciers will melt intensively, reducing the Earth's albedo. Such a rapid rise in temperature will contribute to an intensive flow of methane from melting permafrost, and an increase in temperature to 1.4-5.8 ° C by the end of the century will contribute to the decomposition of methane hydrates (ice compounds of water and methane), concentrated mainly in cold places on the Earth. Given that methane is 21 times more potent as a greenhouse gas than CO2, the temperature increase on Earth would be catastrophic. To better imagine what will happen to the Earth, it is best to pay attention to our neighbor in solar system- the planet Venus. With the same atmospheric parameters as on Earth, the temperature on Venus should be only 60 ° C higher than the Earth's (Venus is closer to the Earth than the Sun), i.e. be in the region of 75 ° C, in reality, the temperature on Venus is almost 500 ° C. Most of the carbonate and methane-containing compounds on Venus were destroyed a long time ago with the release of carbon dioxide and methane. Venus's atmosphere is currently 98% CO2, causing the planet's temperature to rise by nearly 400°C.
If global warming follows the same scenario as on Venus, then the temperature of the surface layers of the atmosphere on Earth can reach 150 degrees. An increase in the Earth's temperature even by 50°C will put an end to human civilization, and an increase in temperature by 150°C will cause the death of almost all living organisms on the planet.
According to Karnaukhov's optimistic scenario, if the amount of CO2 entering the atmosphere remains at the same level, then the temperature of 50°C on Earth will be established in 300 years, and 150°C in 6000 years. Unfortunately, progress cannot be stopped; every year, CO2 emissions are only growing. In a realistic scenario whereby CO2 emissions would increase at the same rate, doubling every 50 years, the Earth would already have a temperature of 502 in 100 years and 150°C in 300 years.
8. Consequences of global warming
An increase in the average annual temperature of the surface layer of the atmosphere will be more strongly felt over the continents than over the oceans, which in the future will cause a radical restructuring of the natural zones of the continents. The shift of a number of zones to the Arctic and Antarctic latitudes is already being noted.
The permafrost zone has already shifted hundreds of kilometers to the north. Some scientists argue that due to the rapid thawing of permafrost and the rise in the level of the World Ocean, in recent years the Arctic Ocean is advancing on land at an average speed of 3-6 meters per summer, and on the Arctic islands and capes, ice-rich rocks are destroyed and absorbed by the sea during the warm period of the year at speeds up to 20-30 meters. Entire Arctic islands disappear completely; so already in the 21st century, the island of Muostakh near the mouth of the Lena River will disappear.
With a further increase in the average annual temperature of the surface layer of the atmosphere, the tundra may almost completely disappear in the European part of Russia and will remain only on the Arctic coast of Siberia.
The taiga zone will shift to the north by 500-600 kilometers and decrease in area by almost a third, the area of deciduous forests will increase by 3-5 times, and if moisture allows, the deciduous forest belt will stretch in a continuous strip from the Baltic to the Pacific Ocean.
The forest-steppes and steppes will also move to the north and cover the Smolensk, Kaluga, Tula, Ryazan regions, coming close to the southern borders of the Moscow and Vladimir regions.
Global warming will also affect animal habitats. The change of habitats of living organisms is already noted in many parts of the globe. The gray-headed thrush has already begun to nest in Greenland, starlings and swallows have appeared in subarctic Iceland, and the white heron has appeared in Britain. The warming of the Arctic ocean waters is especially noticeable. Now many commercial fish are found where they were not before. Cod and herring appeared in the waters of Greenland in sufficient quantities for their industrial fishing, in the waters of Great Britain - the inhabitants of the southern latitudes: red trout, big-headed turtle, in the Far Eastern Gulf of Peter the Great - the Pacific sardine, and in the Sea of Okhotsk mackerel and saury appeared. The brown bear's range in North America has already moved north to the extent that hybrids of polar and brown bears have begun to appear, and in the southern part of their range, brown bears have ceased to hibernate altogether.
An increase in temperature creates favorable conditions for the development of diseases, which is facilitated not only by high temperature and humidity, but also by the expansion of the habitat of a number of animal carriers of diseases. By the middle of the 21st century, the incidence of malaria is expected to increase by 60%. The increased development of microflora and the lack of clean drinking water will contribute to the growth of infectious intestinal diseases. The rapid multiplication of microorganisms in the air can increase the incidence of asthma, allergies and various respiratory diseases.
Due to global climate change, the next half century may be the last in the life of many species of living organisms. Already, polar bears, walruses and seals are being deprived of an important component of their habitat - Arctic ice.
Global warming for our country entails both pluses and minuses. Winters will become less severe, lands with a climate suitable for agriculture will move further north (in the European part of Russia to the White and Kara Seas, in Siberia to the Arctic Circle), in many parts of the country it will be possible to grow more southern cultures and early maturation of the former. It is expected that by 2060 the average temperature in Russia will reach 0 degrees Celsius, now it is -5.3 degrees Celsius.
Unpredictable consequences will entail the thawing of permafrost, as you know, permafrost covers 2/3 of the area of Russia and 1/4 of the area of the entire Northern Hemisphere. On permafrost Russian Federation there are many cities, thousands of kilometers of pipelines, as well as roads and railways have been laid (80% of BAM passes through permafrost). Melting permafrost can be accompanied by significant damage. Large territories may become unsuitable for human life. Some scientists express concern that Siberia may even be cut off from the European part of Russia and become the object of claims of other countries.
Other countries of the world are also waiting for drastic changes. In general, according to most models, winter precipitation is expected to increase in high latitudes (above 50°N and South), as well as in temperate latitudes. In southern latitudes, on the contrary, a decrease in the amount of precipitation is expected (up to 20%), especially in summer. The countries of Southern Europe, which are engaged in tourism, expect big economic losses. Summer dry heat and winter rain showers will reduce the “ardor” of those who want to relax in Italy, Greece, Spain and France. For many other countries living off tourists, they will also come far from better times. Fans of skiing in the Alps will be disappointed, there will be “tension” with snow in the mountains. In many countries of the world, living conditions are deteriorating significantly. According to UN estimates, by the middle of the 21st century there will be up to 200 million climate refugees in the world.
9. Ways to prevent global warming
It is believed that man in the future will try to take the Earth's climate under his control, how successful this will be, time will tell. If humanity does not succeed, and it does not change its way of life, then the fate of dinosaurs awaits the species Homo sapiens.
Even now, advanced minds are thinking about how to level the processes of global warming. Such original ways to prevent global warming are proposed, such as breeding new varieties of plants and tree species, the leaves of which have a higher albedo, painting roofs in White color, installation of mirrors in near-Earth orbit, shelter from the sun's rays of glaciers, etc. A lot of effort is being spent on replacing traditional types of energy based on the combustion of carbon raw materials with non-traditional ones, such as the production of solar panels, windmills, the construction of PES (tidal power plants), hydroelectric power stations, nuclear power plants. Original non-traditional ways of generating energy are proposed, such as using the heat of human bodies to heat rooms, using sunlight to prevent ice on roads, and a number of others. Energy hunger and fear of threatening global warming does wonders for the human brain. New and original ideas are born almost every day.
Not much attention is paid rational use energy resources.
To reduce CO2 emissions into the atmosphere, improved Engine efficiency, hybrid cars are produced.
In the future, it is planned to pay great attention to capturing greenhouse gases in the production of electricity, as well as directly from the atmosphere through the burial of plant organisms, the use of ingenious artificial trees, the injection of carbon dioxide many kilometers deep into the ocean, where it will dissolve in the water column. Majority listed ways"neutralization" of CO2 is very expensive. Currently, the cost of capturing one ton of CO2 is approximately 100-300 dollars, which exceeds the market value of a ton of oil, and given that the combustion of one ton produces approximately three tons of CO2, then many methods of capturing carbon dioxide are not yet relevant. Previously proposed methods of sequestering carbon by planting trees are recognized as untenable due to the fact that most of the carbon as a result of forest fires and decomposition of organic matter goes back into the atmosphere.
Particular attention is paid to the development of legislative regulations aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. At present, many countries of the world have adopted the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) and the Kyoto Protocol (1999). The latter has not been ratified by a number of countries that account for the lion's share of CO2 emissions. Thus, the US accounts for about 40% of all emissions (recently, it has been reported that China has overtaken the US in terms of CO2 emissions). Unfortunately, as long as a person puts his own well-being at the forefront, no progress is expected in addressing global warming issues.
Global warming will greatly affect the lives of some animals. For example, polar bears, seals and penguins will be forced to change their habitats as the polar ice caps disappear. Many species of animals and plants will also disappear, unable to adapt to the rapidly changing environment. 250 million years ago, global warming killed three-quarters of all life on Earth
Global warming will change the climate on a global scale. An increase in the number of climatic disasters, an increase in the number of floods due to hurricanes, desertification and a reduction in summer precipitation by 15-20% in the main agricultural areas, an increase in the level and temperature of the ocean, and the boundaries of natural zones are expected to shift to the north.
Moreover, according to some forecasts, global warming will trigger the onset of the Little Ice Age. In the 19th century, the cause of such a cooling was the eruption of volcanoes, in our century the reason is already different - the desalination of the world's oceans as a result of the melting of glaciers
How will global warming affect humans?
In the short term: lack of drinking water, an increase in the number of infectious diseases, problems in agriculture due to droughts, an increase in the number of deaths due to floods, hurricanes, heat and drought.
The worst hit could be in the poorest countries, which are the least responsible for exacerbating the problem and least prepared for climate change. Warming and rising temperatures, in the end, can reverse everything that was achieved by the work of previous generations.
The destruction of established and customary farming systems under the influence of droughts, irregular rainfall, etc. could actually push some 600 million people to the brink of starvation. By 2080, 1.8 billion people will experience severe water shortages. And in Asia and China, due to the melting of glaciers and changes in the nature of precipitation, an ecological crisis may occur.
An increase in temperature by 1.5-4.5°C will lead to a rise in the ocean level by 40-120 cm (according to some calculations, up to 5 meters). This means the flooding of many small islands and flooding in coastal areas. About 100 million inhabitants will be in flood-prone areas, more than 300 million people will be forced to migrate, some states will disappear (for example, the Netherlands, Denmark, part of Germany).
The World Health Organization (WHO) believes that the health of hundreds of millions of people may be at risk as a result of the spread of malaria (due to the increase in the number of mosquitoes in flooded areas), intestinal infections (due to the violation of water and sewer systems), etc.
In the long term, this may lead to the next stage of human evolution. Our ancestors faced a similar problem when temperatures soared by 10°C after the Ice Age, but this is what led to the creation of our civilization.
Experts do not have accurate data on what is the contribution of humanity to the observed increase in temperatures on Earth and what a chain reaction could be.
Also, the exact relationship between the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the increase in temperatures is not known. This is one of the reasons why temperature forecasts vary so much. And this gives food to skeptics: some scientists consider the problem of global warming somewhat exaggerated, as well as data on the increase in the average temperature on Earth.
Scientists do not have a common opinion about what the final balance of positive and negative effects of climate change can be, and according to what scenario the situation will develop further.
A number of scientists believe that several factors may dampen the effect of global warming: as temperatures rise, plant growth will accelerate, which will allow plants to take more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
Others believe that the possible negative effects of global climate change are underestimated:
droughts, cyclones, storms and floods will become more frequent,
an increase in the temperature of the world's oceans also causes an increase in the strength of hurricanes,
the rate of glacier melt and ocean level rise will also be faster…. And this is confirmed by the latest research data.
Already, the ocean level has increased by 4 cm instead of the predicted 2 cm, the rate of glacier melting has increased 3 times (the thickness of the ice cover has decreased by 60-70 cm, and the area of non-melting ice of the Northern Arctic Ocean in 2008 alone it decreased by 14%.
It is possible that human activity has already doomed the ice cover to complete disappearance, which could result in a several times greater rise in ocean level (by 5-7 meters instead of 40-60 cm).
Moreover, according to some reports, global warming may come much faster than previously thought due to the release of carbon dioxide from ecosystems, including from the oceans.
And finally, we must not forget that after global warming, global cooling may come.
However, whatever the scenario, everything points to the fact that we must stop playing dangerous games with the planet and reduce our impact on it. It is better to overestimate the danger than to underestimate it. It is better to do everything possible to prevent it than to bite your elbows later. Who is warned is armed.
in the 20th and 21st centuries.According to scientists, by the beginning the average temperature of the Earth's surface may increase by 1.8 to 3.4 °C. In some regions, the temperature may drop slightly (see Fig. 1).
According to experts (IPCC) , the average temperature on Earth has risen by 0.7 ° Cfrom the second halfand “much of the warming observed in the past 50 years is due to". Thisfirst of allejection,calling as a result of burning , and .(see fig.2) .
The strongest temperature fluctuations are observed in the Arctic, Greenland and the Antarctic Peninsula (see Figure 3). It is the polar regions that are most sensitive to climate change, where water is on the border of melting and freezing. A slight cooling leads to an increase in the area of snow and ice, which reflect well into space. solar radiation, thereby further lowering the temperature. Conversely, warming leads to a reduction in snow and ice cover, better warming of water and intensive melting of glaciers, which leads to an increase in ocean level.
In addition to increasing , an increase in temperature will also lead to changes in quantity and distribution. As a result, natural disasters may become more frequent:, and others. Warming is likely to increase the frequency and magnitude of such events.
Other possible consequence increase in global temperatures is the decline in crop yields in Africa, Asia and Latin America and higher yields in developed countries (due to longer growing seasons).
Climate warming can lead to a shift in the habitats of plant and animal species to the polar zone, which will increase the likelihood of extinction of small species inhabiting coastal zones and islands, whose existence is currently under threat of extinction.
By 2013, the scientific community reports that the process of global warming has stopped, and the reasons for the cessation of temperature growth are being studied.
The purpose of my work is to investigate global warming and find ways to solve this problem.
Research objectives:
Explore various theories global warming;
Assess the consequences of this process;
Suggest measures to prevent global warming.
Research methods used in my work:
Empirical
Statistical
Mathematical, etc.
Climate change on Earth.
The climate is changing as a result of natural internal processes, and external impacts on the environment (see Fig. 4). Over the past 2000 years, several climatic cycles of cooling and warming, replacing each other, are clearly distinguished.
Climatic shifts of our era.
0 - 400 years
. The climate was probably hot, but not dry. The temperature was roughly the same as today, and to the north of the Alps it was even higher than today. Wetter climates prevailed in North Africa and the Middle East.
400 - 1000 years
. The average annual temperature was 1-1.5 degrees lower than the current one. In general, the climate has become wetter and winters colder. In Europe, cold temperatures have also been associated with increased humidity. The limit of tree distribution in the Alps has decreased by about 200 meters, and the glaciers have increased.
1000 - 1300 years
. The era of relatively warm climate inin- centuries, was characterized by mild winters, relatively warm and even weather.
1300 - 1850
. Period, which took place onduring- . This period is the coldest in the last 2,000 years.
1850 - 20?? gg
"Global warming". Estimates from climate models suggest that the average temperature of the Earth's surface may rise by 1.8 to 3.4 °C by the beginning.
Causes of global warming.
The causes of climate change remain unknown, however, among the main external influences are changes in the Earth's orbit, volcanic emissions and . According to direct climate observations, average temperatures on Earth have increased, but the reasons for this increase remain a matter of debate. One of the most widely discussed causes is anthropogenic .
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According to some scholarsthe presentglobal warming is attributed to human activity. It is caused by an anthropogenic increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere, and, as a result, an increase in ». The effect of its presence in resembles the greenhouse effect, when short-wave solar radiation easily penetrates through the CO layer. 2 , and then, reflected from the earth's surface and turning into long-wave radiation, cannot penetrate back through it and remains in the atmosphere. This layer acts like a film in a greenhouse - it creates an additional thermal effect.
The greenhouse effect was discovered in and was first studied inyear. This is the process by which absorption and emission causes the atmosphere and surface to heat up..
On Earth, the main greenhouse gases are: (responsible for approximately 36-70% of the greenhouse effect, excluding clouds), (CO 2 ) (9-26%), (CH 4 ) (4-9%) and (3-7%). Atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 and CH 4 increased from the beginning of the industrial revolution to the middle by 31% and 149% respectively. According to separate studies, such concentration levels have been reached for the first time in the last 650,000 years. This is the period for which data were obtained from polar ice samples. Carbon dioxide creates 50% of the greenhouse effect, chlorofluorocarbon accounts for 15-20%, methane - 18%, nitrogen 6% (Fig. 5).
About half of all greenhouse gases produced during economic activity humanity, remain in the atmosphere. About three-quarters of all anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions over the past 20 years have been the result of fuel combustion. At the same time, about half of the volume of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions is associated with terrestrial vegetation and the ocean. Most of the remaining CO 2 emissions are caused primarily by deforestation and a decrease in the amount of vegetation that absorbs carbon dioxide.
2.2 Change in solar activity.
Scientists have proposed a variety of explanations for changes in the temperature of the Earth. All ongoing climatic processes on the planet depend on the activity of our luminary - the Sun. Therefore, even the smallest changes in solar activity will certainly affect the weather and climate of the Earth. There are 11-year, 22-year, and 80-90-year (Gleisberg) cycles of solar activity. It is likely that the observed global warming is due to the next increase in solar activity, which may decline again in the future. Solar Activity could explain half of the temperature changes before 1970. Under the action of solar radiation, the thickness of mountain glaciers changes. For example, in the Alps almost the Pasterze glacier was melting (see Fig. 6). And glaciers are thinning in some areas, while ice sheets are thickening in others (see Fig. 7). Over the past half century, temperatures in southwestern Antarctica have increased by 2.5°C. In from the shelf with an area of 3250 km² and a thickness of over 200 meters, located on the Antarctic Peninsula, an area of over 2500 km² broke away. The entire destruction process took only 35 days. Prior to this, the glacier had remained stable for 10,000 years, since the end of the last ice age. Melting ice shelf led to the release of a large number of icebergs (over a thousand) in (see Fig. 8).
2.3 Influence of the World Ocean.
The oceans are a huge storage of solar energy. It determines the direction and speed of movement of warm ocean currents, as well as air masses on Earth, which greatly affect the climate of the planet. At present, the nature of heat circulation in the water column of the ocean has been little studied. It is known that the average temperature of the ocean waters is 3.5°C, and the land surface is 15°C, therefore, enhanced heat transfer between the ocean and the surface layer of the atmosphere can lead to significant climate changes (Fig. 9). In addition, a large amount of CO 2 is dissolved in the waters of the ocean (about 140 trillion tons, which is 60 times more than in the atmosphere) and a number of other greenhouse gases. As a result of various natural processes, these gases can enter the atmosphere, significantly affecting the Earth's climate.
2 .4 Volcanic activity.
Volcanic activity is also a source of sulfuric acid aerosols and a large amount of carbon dioxide released during volcanic eruptions into the Earth's atmosphere. Large eruptions are initially accompanied by cooling due to the entry of ash, sulfuric acid and soot particles into the Earth's atmosphere. Subsequently, the CO 2 released during the eruption causes an increase in the average annual temperature on Earth. The subsequent long-term decrease in volcanic activity contributes to an increase in the transparency of the atmosphere, and leads to an increase in temperature on the planet. This can significantly affect the Earth's climate.
3.Results global warming research.
When studying global warming by different weather stations of the world, four series of global temperatures were identified, starting with the second half of the 19th century (see Fig. 10). They show two distinct episodes of global warming. One of them falls on the period from 1910 to 1940. During this time, the average temperature on Earth increased by 0.3-0.4°C. Then, for 30 years, the temperature did not rise and, perhaps, even dropped slightly. And since 1970, a new episode of warming began, which continues to this day. During this time, the temperature increased by another 0.6-0.8°C. Thus, in general, over the 20th century, the average global surface air temperature on Earth has increased by about one degree. This is quite a lot, because even when the ice age comes out, the warming is usually only 4° C.
By studying changes in the level of the World Ocean, scientists have found that the average sea level has been rising over the past 100 years at an average rate of about 1.7 mm / year, which is much more than average speed over the past few thousand years. Since 1993, the global sea level has begun to rise at an accelerated rate - about 3.5 mm / year (see Fig. 11). The main cause of sea level rise today is the increase in the heat content of the ocean, which leads to its expansion. Ice melt is expected to play a larger role in accelerating sea level rise in the future.
The total volume of glaciers on Earth is shrinking rather sharply. Glaciers have been gradually shrinking throughout the last century. But the rate of decline has noticeably increased in the last decade (see Fig. 12). Only a few glaciers are still growing. The gradual disappearance of glaciers will be the result of not only rising sea levels, but also the emergence of problems with the provision of fresh water to some parts of Asia and South America.
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There is a theory, which often used by opponents of the concepts of anthropogenic global warming and the greenhouse effect. They argue that modern warming is a natural way out of the Little Ice Age of the XIV-XIX centuries, which will lead to the restoration of the temperatures of the small climatic optimum of the X-XIII centuries.
Global warming may not happen everywhere. According to the hypothesis of climatologists M. Ewing and W. Donn, there is an oscillatory process in which the ice age is generated by climate warming, and the exit from the ice age is caused by cooling. This is due to the fact that when the polar ice caps thaw, the amount of precipitation in polar latitudes increases. Subsequently, there is a decrease in temperature in the inland regions of the northern hemisphere, followed by the formation of glaciers. When the ice polar caps freeze, the glaciers in the deep regions of the continents, not receiving enough recharge in the form of precipitation, begin to thaw.
According to one hypothesis, global warming will lead to a stop or a serious weakening. This will cause a significant drop in the average temperature in (while the temperature in other regions will increase, but not necessarily in all), as the Gulf Stream warms the continent due to transport warm water from the tropics.
5. Consequences of global warming.
Currently, the climate warming factor is considered on a par with other known health risk factors - smoking, alcohol, overnutrition, low physical activity and others.
5.1 Spread of infections.
As a result of climate warming, an increase in precipitation, an expansion of wetlands and an increase in the number of flooded settlements are expected. The area of settlement of reservoirs by mosquito larvae is constantly increasing, including 70% of reservoirs are infected with larvae of malarial mosquitoes. According to WHO experts, an increase in temperature by 2-3 ° C leads to an increase in the number of people who can get malaria by about 3-5%. Mosquito-borne (“mosquito”) diseases may occur, such as West Nile fever (WNF), Dengue fever, yellow fever. An increase in the number of days with high temperatures leads to the activation of ticks and an increase in the incidence of infections they carry.
5.2. Melting permafrost.
In the depths of the frozen rocks preserved gas - methane. It causes an incomparably greater greenhouse effect than CO2. If methane is released into the atmosphere as permafrost melts, climate change will be irreversible. The planet will become suitable only for cockroaches and bacteria. In addition, dozens of cities built on permafrost will simply sink. The percentage of building deformations in the north is already very high and is growing all the time. Due to the melting of the permafrost, it will be impossible to extract oil, gas, nickel, diamonds and copper. With global warming, with an increase in temperature, new outbreaks of viruses will occur, it becomes available to bacteria and fungi that decompose methane.
5.3 Abnormal natural phenomena.
Scientists believe that one of the consequences of climate change is an increase in the number of such abnormal weather phenomena as floods, storms, typhoons, and hurricanes. R The increase in the frequency, intensity and duration of droughts in some regions will lead to an increase in fire hazard in forest areas, a noticeable expansion of drought areas and desert lands. In other regions of the Earth, one can expect an increase in winds and an increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones, an increase in the frequency of heavy precipitation, which will cause floods to become more frequent, which will lead to waterlogging of the soil, which is dangerous for agriculture.
5.4 Ocean level rise.
In the northern seas, the number of glaciers will decrease (for example, in Greenland), which will lead to a rise in the level of the World Ocean. Then coastal areas will be under water, the level of which is below sea level. For example, the Netherlands, which, under the pressure of the sea, only with the help of dams retain their territory; Japan, which has many production capacity; many islands in the tropics can be flooded with the ocean.
5.5 Economic implications.
Climate change costs rise with temperature. Severe storms and floods cause billions of dollars in losses. Extreme weather creates extraordinary financial challenges. For example, after a record-breaking hurricane in 2005, Louisiana experienced a 15 percent drop in revenue a month after the storm, and property damage was estimated at $135 billion. Consumers are regularly confronted with rising food and energy prices, along with rising health care and real estate costs. As drylands expand, food production is threatened and some populations are at risk of going hungry. Today, India, Pakistan, and sub-Saharan Africa are suffering from food shortages, and experts predict even greater reductions in rainfall in the coming decades. Thus, according to estimates, a very gloomy picture emerges. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that by 2020, 75-200 million Africans could experience water scarcity and the continent's agricultural output could fall by 50 percent.
5.6 Loss of biodiversity and destruction of ecosystems.
By 2050, humanity risks losing as much as 30 percent of animal and plant species if the average temperature rises by 1.1 to 6.4 degrees Celsius. Such extinction will occur due to loss of habitat through desertification, deforestation and warming ocean waters, as well as due to the inability to adapt to ongoing climate change. Researchers wildlife noted that some of the more resilient species migrated to the poles in order to "maintain" the habitat they needed. When plants and animals disappear as a result of climate change, human food, fuel and income will also disappear. Scientists are already seeing bleaching and death of coral reefs due to warming ocean waters, as well as the migration of the most vulnerable plant and animal species to other areas due to rising air and water temperatures, as well as in connection with the melting of glaciers. Changing climatic conditions and a sharp increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are a serious test for our ecosystems.
6. Areas of climate change.
The Intergovernmental Commission has identified a number of areas most vulnerable to expected climate change:
In Asia's mega-delta region, small islands will see increased droughts and increased desertification;
In Europe, rising temperatures will reduce water resources and hydropower generation, reduce agricultural output, worsen tourism conditions, reduce snow cover and retreat of mountain glaciers, increase summer precipitation and increase the risk of heavy and catastrophic rivers;
In the Central and Eastern Europe there will be an increase in the frequency of forest fires, fires on peatlands, a decrease in forest productivity; increasing ground instability in Northern Europe.
In the Arctic - a catastrophic decrease in the area of ice cover, a reduction in the area of sea ice, strengthening of the coast;
In the southwest of Antarctica, on , the temperature increased by 2.5 °C. The mass of Antarctic ice is decreasing at an accelerating rate;
In Western Siberia, since the early 1970s, the temperature of permafrost soils has increased by 1.0 ° C, in central Yakutia - by 1-1.5 ° C in the northern regions - the Arkhangelsk region, the Komi Republic has not warmed at all;
In the north, since the mid-1980s, the temperature of the upper layer of frozen rocks has increased by 3 ° C, and the fertile California has become somewhat colder;
In the southern regions, in particular, in Ukraine, it also got a little colder.
7. Measures to prevent global warming.
To stop growing CO2 , it is necessary to replace traditional types of energy based on the combustion of carbon raw materials with non-traditional ones. It is necessary to increase the production of solar panels, windmills, the construction of tidal power plants (TPP), geothermal and hydroelectric power plants (HPP).
The problem of global warming must be solved at the international level, in accordance with a single international program drawn up with the participation of the governments of all countries and the world community, under a single international leadership. To date, the main global agreement on combating global warming is (agreed on, entered into force on). The protocol includes more than 160 countries of the world and covers about 55% of global greenhouse gas emissions.:
The European Union must cut CO 2 and other greenhouse gas emissions by 8%.
USA - by 7%.
Japan - by 6%.
The protocol provides for a system of quotas for greenhouse gas emissions. Its essence lies in the fact that each of the countries receives permission to emit a certain amount of greenhouse gases. Thus, it is assumed that greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced by 5% over the next 15 years.
Since the implementation of this program will be designed for many years, it is necessary to designate the stages of its implementation, their deadlines, and provide for a system of control and reporting.
Russian scientists are also developing weapons against global warming. This is an aerosol of sulfur compounds, which is supposed to be sprayed into the lower layers of the atmosphere. The method, developed by Russian scientists, involves spraying with the help of aircraft in the lower layers of the stratosphere (at an altitude of 10-14 kilometers from the ground) a thin layer of aerosol (0.25-0.5 microns) from various connections sulfur. Sulfur droplets will reflect solar radiation.
According to scientists, if one million tons of aerosol is sprayed over the Earth, this will reduce solar radiation by 0.5-1 percent, and air temperature by 1-1.5 degrees Celsius.
The amount of aerosol sprayed will need to be constantly maintained as sulfur compounds will sink to the ground over time.
Conclusion.
When studying global warming, I came to the conclusion that over the past 150 years there has been a change in the thermal regime by about 1-1.5 degrees. It has its own regional and temporal scales.
Many scientists believe that the main reason that possibly leads to these processes is an increase in CO 2 (carbon dioxide) in. It is called a "greenhouse gas." An increase in the content of gases such as freon and a number of halogen gases is also considered a consequence of human activities and the cause of ozone holes.
Studies have shown that in order to avoid a global catastrophe, it is necessary to reduce carbon emissions into the atmosphere.
I believe that the most important ways to solve this problem are: the introduction of environmentally friendly, low-waste and waste-free technologies, the construction of treatment facilities, the rational distribution of production and the use of natural resources.
I suggest to use biogas technologies.
Biogas is a decomposition product of organic substances of various origins (manure, food industry waste, other biological waste).
Biogas consists of 50-70% methane (CH 4) and 30-50% carbon dioxide (CO 2). It can be used as a fuel for heat and electricity. Biogas can be used in boiler plants (to generate heat), in gas turbines or in reciprocating engines. Usually they operate in cogeneration mode - for the production of electricity and heat (see Fig. 13).
Raw materials for biogas plants are available in sufficient quantities at treatment plants Wastewater, on garbage dumps, on pig farms, poultry farms, in cowsheds. It is agricultural enterprises that can be considered the main consumer of biogas technologies. From a ton of manure, 30-50 m3 of biogas is obtained with a methane content of 60%. In fact, one cow is able to provide 2.5 cubic meters of gas per day. About 2 kW of electricity can be generated from one cubic meter of biogas. Plus is produced organic fertilizer which can be used in agriculture.
The principle of operation of the installation:
From livestock buildings 1 using self-alloying method, manure is moved to a receiving tank 2 , where the preparation of raw materials for loading into reactors for processing takes place. Then it is fed into the biogas plant 3 , where the biogas is released, which is fed into the gas distribution column 5 . It separates carbon dioxide and methane. Wastes are nitrogen fertilizers, they are taken to the fields 10. CO 2 goes to the production of biovitamin concentrate, and CH4 goes to the gas generator 9 , where it generates electricity, with which the pump works 11 supplying water for irrigation of fields and greenhouses 13 .
In the energy balance European countries biogas takes 3-4%. In Finland, Sweden and Austria, thanks to the state incentives for bioenergy, its share reaches 15-20%. There are 12 million small "family" biogas plants operating in China, supplying gas mainly cookers. This technology is widespread in India, Africa.In Russia, biogas plants are little used.
Bibliography.
Journal "Chemistry and Life" №4, 2007
Kriskunov E.A. Ecology (textbook), M. 1995
Pravda.ru
Revich B.A. "Russia in the surrounding world: 2004"
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http://www.priroda.su/item/389
http://www.climatechange.ru/node/119
http://energyland.info
Into the atmosphere as a result of burning fossil fuels from 1800 to 2007 in billions of tons.
Figure 3 Between 1979 (left) and 2003 (right), the area covered by Arctic ice has noticeably decreased.
Fig.4 Climate reconstructions for the period 1000-2000 n. e., marked by the Little Ice Age
Rice. 5. The proportion of anthropogenic gases in the atmosphere during the greenhouse effect.
Fig.6 Photographs of the melting Pasterze glacier in Austria in 1875 (left) and 2004 (right).
Fig.7 Map of changes in the thickness of mountain glaciers since 1970. Thinning in orange and red colors, thickening in blue.
Fig.8. Melting ice shelf.
Fig.9 Graph of changes in ocean heat content for a 700-meter layer of water since 1955. Seasonal changes (red dots), annual averages (black line)
Fig.10. Study of global warming at different weather stations.
Rice. 11 Graph of changes in annual mean measurements of global sea level. Red: sea level since 1870; blue: based on tide sensors, black: based on satellite observations. Inset is the average global sea level rise since 1993, the period during which sea level rise has accelerated.
Rice. 12 Volumetric decline (in cubic miles) of glaciers worldwide.
Rice. 13 Diagram of a biogas plant.
